Don't get too used to $2.00/gallon gasoline.

According to the folks at the McKinsey Quarterly, in the next few years, oil will be back at $150 a barrel, right where it was in July of 2008.

In the long term, our research suggests continued rapid growth in overall demand for energy, further boosting the importance of efficiency efforts. From 2010 to 2020, assuming a moderate GDP downturn scenario, demand for energy will grow by 2.3 percent a year, nearly a full percentage point more than projections for 2006 to 2010. More than 90 percent of this demand expansion will come from developing regions, with China, India, and the Middle East leading the way. Five sectors within China—residential and commercial buildings, steel, petrochemicals, and light vehicles—will account for more than 25 percent of global energy demand growth.

This means that China's growth by itself will create upward price pressure on oil even if our domestic demand stays flat or even declines. All of which suggests that we need to be very aggressive in both our conservation efforts and in finding alternative sources of energy. Time for a $2/gallon tax on gas?

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